COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2020/21 U.S. corn outlook is little changed from last month, with fractional increases to beginning and ending stocks. Beginning stocks are raised, as a 45-million-bushel reduction in estimated production for 2019/20 is largely offset by a 50-million-bushel reduction in projected corn used for ethanol. Corn used for ethanol is lowered reflecting a slower-than-expected rebound in ethanol production as indicated by Energy Information Administration data during the month of May and into early June. For 2020/21, with supply up slightly and no changes to projected use, ending stocks are 5 million bushels higher at 3.3 billion bushels. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $3.20 per bushel.
The global coarse grain production forecast for 2020/21 is raised 3.2 million tons to 1,484.6 million. This month’s foreign coarse grain outlook is for larger production, increased use, and lower stocks relative to last month. Brazil corn production is raised based on higher expected area. Barley production is raised for the EU, based mostly on a forecast increase for the United Kingdom that is partly offset by a reduction for France. Barley production is raised for Australia, but lowered for Ukraine, India, and Russia. For 2019/20, Brazil corn production is unchanged, as higher indicated area is offset by a reduction in yield. Yield prospects for much of the Center-West are generally favorable in contrast to the South where conditions have been poor.
Major global trade changes for 2020/21 include a larger corn export forecast for Zambia, with increases in corn imports for Thailand and Honduras. Barley exports are lowered for Australia, based on a reduction in projected imports for China. For 2019/20, corn exports are raised for Argentina but lowered for Brazil for the local marketing year beginning March 2020 based on observed data through early June. Foreign corn ending stocks for 2020/21 are lowered from last month, mostly reflecting reductions for China, Argentina, South Africa, and Paraguay that more than offset increases for Brazil and India.
OILSEEDS: This month’s U.S. soybean supply and use projections for 2020/21 include higher beginning stocks, higher crush, and slightly lower ending stocks. Beginning stocks are raised 5 million bushels with higher crush for 2019/20 more-than-offset with lower production and a lower export forecast. Lower 2019 production reflects the latest re-survey by NASS for North Dakota. The 2019/20 soybean crush is raised 15 million bushels reflecting increased domestic soybean meal use. Soybean exports are reduced 25 million bushels on increased competition from South America. Increased beginning stocks for 2020/21 are more than offset with a higher soybean crush forecast, which is raised along with increased domestic soybean meal use. With higher soybean crush more than offsetting higher beginning stocks, 2020/21 ending stocks are projected at 395 million bushels. The 2020/21 season-average soybean and product price forecasts are unchanged this month.
The 2020/21 global oilseed supply and demand forecasts include slightly higher production and lower ending stocks compared to last month. Higher peanut, soybean, and sunflower seed production is partly offset by lower cottonseed output. A notable revision to production is for EU canola, lowered 0.2 million tons to 16.8 million, based largely on lower yields for Germany. The EU revision is offset by higher Australian canola production. The 2020/21 soybean ending stocks are lowered 2.1 million tons to 96.3 million, mainly reflecting lower carrying due to revisions to 2019/20 balance sheets. For 2019/20, soybean exports are increased 1 million tons each for Argentina and Brazil based on the recent pace of shipments and reflect increased crush demand and imports for China. Partly offsetting is reduced 2019/20 U.S. exports. These revisions result in higher stocks for China and lower stocks for South America.
COTTON: The most significant revision to this month’s U.S. cotton supply and demand estimates is a 200,000-bale decrease in 2019/20 mill use, to 2.5 million bales. U.S. mill use in 2020/21 was also revised downward by 100,000 bales, and ending stocks are now projected at 7.3 million bales in 2019/20 and 8.0 million bales in 2020/21. While the 43 percent stocks-use ratio projected for 2020/21 is marginally higher than the year before, and is substantially above recent levels, it would still be below the 55 percent ratio realized in 2007/08.
The 2020/21 world cotton projections include slightly smaller production, reduced consumption, and higher beginning and ending stocks. World ending stocks are 5.2 million bales higher this month, reflecting cuts to world consumption of slightly more than 2 million bales each in 2019/20 and 2020/21, and revised production estimates for Argentina starting with 2017/18 that added an additional 930,000 bales to stocks. World production in 2020/21 is revised downward by 215,000 bales as higher production in Argentina and Tanzania is offset by reductions for Turkey, Uzbekistan, and some smaller countries. World consumption in 2020/21 is revised downward due to changes in a number of countries, led by a 1-million-bale reduction in the forecast for China and a 500,000-bale reduction for India. At nearly 105 million bales, world ending stocks in 2020/21 are expected to be their largest since 2014/15.