USGC Weekly Price Report 24 Mar 2023
As China continues to buy corn from US, leading to some price rise. May USD 253.13/MT; Jul USD 245.26/MT and Sep USD 224.08/MT. Corn Prices on FOB basis were also reported up. US Gulf for the period Apr-Sep’23 indicated at USD 290-273/MT; FOB PNW indicated at USD 312-296/MT. US Corn #3 USD 310-300/MT (Jul).
As per the International Grains Council (IGC), the outlook for corn in 2022/23 was for a lower production and a decline in world food, feed and industrial uptake was expected to decline.
The outlook for 2023/24 is for a higher corn production by 5% y/y and reach 1,202 MMT and also the use is likely to rebound, due to demand in Asia.
Argentina is expected to produce 36 MMT despite the drought and Ukraine production as per reports is expected to be 21.7 MMT in 2023, down from 25.6 MMT produced in 2022.
India has been in news lately due to the weather conditions that could effect wheat crop across the wheat growing areas. While sudden high temperatures in the start of the month may not have affected the crop so much, as unseasonal rains and hail in some part of the wheat growing areas.
Other origin prices were as under (Apr-Jun’23)
Argentina USD 285-260MT (Jul); Brazil USD 290-265/MT (Jul); FOB Ukraine USD 255-260/MT.
Other grains, US Sorghum prices FOB Texas were indicated at USD 341-331/MT (Apr-Jun)
World Sorghum production in 2022/23 is forecast at 58.2 MMT and supplies at 62.6 MMT. Total use is expected at 59 MMT, of which 31 MMT at food and 21.2 MMt is feed, industrial at 5 MMT and ending stocks at 3.6 MMT. For the year 2023/24, production is expected to rebound to 63.1 MMT and total supplies at 66.8 MMT, of which food use is expected at 31.2 MMT; Feed 24.9 MMT and industrial at 5 MMT. Ending stocks for 2023/254 are expected at 3.8 MMT
Barley prices were as under
France USD 280-283/MT; Argentina USD 295-300/MT; Black Sea USD 255-260/MT; Australia USD 265-270/MT. Barley purchases continue and Jordan purchased 110,000 MT of barley for first week of August delivery.
As per IGC, 2022/23, world barley production is forecast at 154 MMT and total supply at 178 MMT, of which food use at 7 MMT; Feed at 105 MMT and 28 MMT as Industrial. Closing stocks at 27 MMT. For the year 2023/24, production is projected at 145 MMT and total use at 148 MMT, of which food 7 MMT; Feed at 103 MMT and Industrial at 28 MMT.
Ending stocks are projected at 25 MMT. For the year 2023/24, production is expected to be down in Australia at 9.9 MMT From 14.1 in 2022/23; Ukraine 4.8 MMT, down from 6.6 MMT in 2022/23. Turkey 7.5 MMT, down from 8.5 MMT in 2022/23; Russia 19.8 MMT from 22.1 MMT in 2022/23.
DDGS prices are down as SBM prices are down. Ethanol plants will be going in for the maintenance and that is bound to reduce supplies for some time. FOB prices at US Gulf were indicated at USD 339-333/MT, (Apr-Jun); FOB PNW at USD 339-228/MT.
US DDGS delivered prices to the region, Vietnam USD 392/MT; Thailand 404-403/MT; Myanmar USD 388-387/MT. Prices of CGM on FOB basis were indicated at USD 795/MT and CGF at USD 295/MT.
Freight rates (Bulk) are steady , US Gulf to India at USD 47/MT; Argentina to India USD 62/MT; Argentina- Bangladesh at USD 66/MT; Black Sea to Bangladesh (Russia USD 47/MT and Ukraine USD 54/MT).
Source: Amit Sachdeva (U.S. GRAINS COUNCIL )