To mitigate potential El Niño impacts on the 2026 monsoon, the Indian government is deploying a proactive preparedness strategy based on historical data. The Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR) analyzed past drought-bearing El Niño years (2002, 2004, and 2009)—which saw monsoon deficits between 13% and 23%—to map district-level vulnerabilities.
Districts experiencing at least a 10% drop in production during those years were flagged. The assessment identified 77 districts for paddy, 65 for maize, and 36 each for sorghum and millet as highly susceptible to rainfall shocks.
Contingency and Adaptation Measures
The Center has advised states to implement crop-specific agronomic interventions. According to ICAR’s Standard Operating Procedures (SOP) for 2026:
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Mitigation: KVKs will recommend life-saving irrigation and foliar nutrient applications to combat terminal drought during reproductive crop stages.
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Alternative Plans: Prioritizing catch crops in case of initial failure, or harvesting severely affected crops as fodder.
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Stakeholder Engagement: ICAR’s Central Research Institute for Dryland Agriculture (CRIDA) has initiated meetings with major agricultural states (including Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and West Bengal) to prepare contingency plans.
The 2026 Context & Production Targets
While the India Meteorological Department reported that rainfall from June 1–24 was 42% below normal, experts note that 2026 is structurally different from past El Niño years. A former agriculture secretary highlighted that a major expansion in groundwater-led assured irrigation and unique spatial rainfall distributions may lessen the impact.
Despite the initial dry spell, the Centre has set an ambitious Kharif foodgrain production target of 176.16 million tonnes (mt), including 123.15 mt of rice and 31.04 mt of maize.
Source: The Hindubusinessline
