Global soybean markets are expected to turn bearish in the second half of 2026, as increased planting in the United States and ample global supplies weigh on prices, according to analysts.
Despite a 12% price rise since early 2026, research firm BMI has cautioned that current market strength is temporary. The agency has revised its annual price forecast for CBOT soybean futures to 1,130 cents per bushel, supported in the short term by improved US-China trade activity and geopolitical tensions involving Iran.
However, the outlook is expected to shift as supply fundamentals loosen. The US Department of Agriculture has projected soybean planting at 84.7 million acres in 2026, up 4% year-on-year, as farmers increasingly switch from corn due to rising nitrogen fertilizer costs.
Globally, production is also set to rise. The International Grains Council estimates soybean output at 442.3 million tonnes in 2026–27, up from 425.9 million tonnes the previous season. Higher availability, projected at 520.4 million tonnes, is expected to outpace consumption growth, resulting in a supply surplus.
Adding to the bearish sentiment is the prospect of another record harvest in Brazil, the world’s leading soybean exporter. Increased supply from both the US and Brazil is likely to cap price gains despite short-term volatility linked to trade developments.
BMI expects soybean prices to average 1,155 cents per bushel in Q2, easing to 1,130 cents in Q3 and 1,105 cents in Q4. While geopolitical tensions and trade negotiations may provide intermittent support, analysts believe the weight of global supplies will ultimately pressure prices in the latter half of the year.
