China’s soybean imports remain in focus as the world’s largest buyer navigates high Brazilian premiums and ongoing trade tensions with the U.S. In September 2025, China imported 12.87 million metric tons of soybeans, the second-highest monthly volume on record, largely sourced from South America. Brazil alone supplied around 6.5 million tons, accounting for 93% of its total exports to China, while Argentina also contributed significantly under its temporary tax holiday. These imports ensured China’s soybean supply remained robust, with total imports from January to September reaching 86.18 million tons, up 5.3% year-on-year.
However, looking ahead to December-January shipments, Chinese buyers have been hesitant to secure new cargoes. High Brazilian premiums of $2.8–2.9 per bushel—compared with U.S. premiums of around $1.7—have squeezed crush margins, discouraging processors from locking in near-term supplies. China still needs approximately 8–9 million tons for year-end and early 2026, and industry sources suggest the country may tap its state reserves before the new South American harvest arrives.
U.S. soybeans remain largely sidelined due to ongoing trade tensions, though buyers may return if a deal is reached during potential Trump-Xi talks in South Korea. Historically, China has diversified imports, sourcing only 20% from the U.S. in 2024, down from 41% in 2016. Analysts note that trade developments, South American weather, and domestic demand for soybean meal will continue to shape China’s purchasing patterns.
With a record Brazilian harvest of 177.64 million tons expected in 2025/26, Chinese crushers hope that supply abundance will ease prices. Meanwhile, strategic sourcing decisions, market diversification, and careful management of reserves remain critical for Beijing to maintain a stable soybean supply in the face of global price volatility and geopolitical uncertainties.
