See local corn prices here- https://glowlit.com/products/f50306c-animal-feed_grains_corn-grain
Across animal feed supply chains we are seeing a different case as spiking feed prices (as we see with corn) cause farmers to review their costs ahead of 2021. Reports suggest a range of reasons, but the primary culprit seems to be rebounding Chinese demand for grain as the Chinese animal protein supply recovers after African Swine Fever (ASF) ravaged hog herds in the last few years. In his book Antifragile: Things That Gain From Disorder, author Nassim Taleb explores the idea that rigid supply chains are in fact fragile supply chains. In a rigid supply chain, spikes in demand create spikes in price in a best case scenario and inability to procure supply in the worst case. This rigidity leads to market failures when supply and demand are thrown into an imbalance.
At Glowlit, we believe that these market failures are caused first and foremost by a lack of visibility on demand. The industry has traditionally relied on estimates of demand or proxy measurements. Even counting the number of hogs in China today is still only an estimate of the demand since this data point – though very valuable – says nothing about the varying purchasing cycles of feed components across the supply chain. There is no substitute for actual purchasing data when it comes to evaluating demand.
The addition of grains and oilseed prices to the Glowlit platform are important not only because they represent an expansion of our product offering, but because these are the purchases being made at the level of the farmer. Since launching these groups, entries from around the world and from various points in the supply chain have started coming into Glowlit. And as this happens, the Glowlit community is gaining clearer visibility on their most critical feedstuffs, not from governments and investors, but from fellow farmers. Only by shedding light on the fluctuations in demand can producers address the supply imbalances around the world. Until then, keep your plunger handy.
See local Biotin prices here- https://glowlit.com/products/fi3d4k1-animal-feed_vitamins_vitamin-b7-(h)-biotin-2
The Chinese pig population is quickly recovering from the impact of African Swine Fever. However, unlike the price of Corn, the price of feed additives depends more on global demand than local Chinese consumption. If we look at the price of biotin, prior to September 2019 we saw a balance in supply and demand which kept the price stable. From the last quarter of 2019, the market imbalance led to a price volatility that was then exacerbated by COVID-19 in 2020. For the last 9 months Biotin prices decreased continuously, suggesting a return to balanced market levels. Nonetheless, the question remains: will global demand also return to its previous levels before September 2019?
In this context, the theme chosen for The 2020 China Vitamin Industrial Summit (CVIS), “Dangers and Opportunities in the Vitamin Industry” speaks to the decisions the industry needs to decide on in the coming years. Industry players that attended the summit will review the competition and collaboration possible between the upstream and downstream partners. What will be decided by them will affect us all.
