A new report, “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2025-2034,” by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) highlights the need for increased agricultural productivity to address undernourishment and mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions globally.
Key takeaways from the report include:
- Rising Calorie Intake in Middle-Income Countries: Global per capita calorie intake of livestock and fish products is expected to rise by 6% over the next decade, primarily driven by a 24% increase in lower-middle-income countries. This growth, while positive for nutrition, still leaves low-income countries well below healthy diet benchmarks.
- Increased Agricultural Production and Emissions: Global agricultural and fish commodity production is projected to expand by about 14% by 2034, largely due to productivity gains in middle-income countries. However, this expansion, involving larger animal herds and cropland areas, will lead to a 6% increase in direct agricultural GHG emissions.
- Productivity as a Solution: The report emphasizes that significant improvements in agricultural productivity are crucial to simultaneously reduce undernourishment and agricultural GHG emissions. A scenario analysis suggests that a 15% productivity improvement combined with investments in emissions-reduction technologies could eradicate global undernourishment and reduce direct agricultural GHG emissions by 7%.
- Challenges for Smallholder Farmers: Projected downward pressure on real agricultural commodity prices due to productivity improvements could pose challenges for smallholder farmers. Governments are urged to provide better market access and tailored support programs for these vulnerable farmers.
- The Role of Technology and Practices: Widespread adoption of currently available emissions-reducing technologies (precision farming, livestock feed enhancements, improved nutrient and water management) and scalable low-cost practices (crop rotations, intercropping) are essential to achieve these objectives.
- Importance of Trade and Cooperation: Multilateral cooperation and a rule-based agricultural trade system are critical for balancing food deficits and surpluses, stabilizing prices, and enhancing food security and sustainability, as 22% of all calories are projected to cross international borders before consumption.
- Cereal Production Trends: Global cereal production is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 1.1%, primarily due to yield increases. By 2034, 40% of cereals will be for direct human consumption, 33% for animal feed, and the rest for biofuels and industrial uses.
- Regional Shifts in Consumption: India and Southeast Asian countries are expected to account for a larger share of global consumption growth by 2034 (39%), while China’s share is projected to decrease.
- Declining Fat and Sweetener Consumption in High-Income Countries: Per capita consumption of fats and sweeteners in high-income countries is projected to decline due to shifting preferences, policy changes, and health concerns.
