India Grain and Feed Sector: Quarterly Review

India’s Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare (MoAFW) released its Indian crop year (ICY) 2023/2024 (July-June) Second Advance Estimate.

The MoAFW is forecasting grain production (excluding the summer crop) lower at 309.3 million metric tons (MMT) compared to 313.6 MMT last year on expected lower production of rice, corn, and other coarse grains, while wheat and barley production is forecast higher at new record levels. Market year (MY) (April-March) wheat ending stocks are revised lower to 7.3 MMT. Rice ending stocks revised higher to 36.5 MMT based on the latest government grain stocks estimates.

Assuming current export policy for rice and price parity for Indian corn compared to global supplies, the MY 2023/2024 rice exports forecast is lowered to 15 MMT and corn to 1 MMT. Consumption estimates are adjusted to reflect production-supply- distribution (PSD) changes.

Source: USDA