China is expected to increase imports of Brazilian soybeans in the first half of 2026, driven by record South American production and more competitive prices, despite a resumption of U.S. soybean shipments. Trade sources said Chinese private crushers are actively securing Brazilian cargoes from February onwards as harvesting accelerates, boosting supplies and pressuring prices.
Brazil’s pricing advantage is expected to curb demand for U.S. soybeans when the American export season begins in September. While China has purchased around 12 million tonnes of U.S. soybeans since late October following an improvement in bilateral ties, these deals were made entirely by state-owned firms Sinograin and COFCO. Higher U.S. prices and a 13% Chinese tariff continue to discourage private buyers, compared with a 3% duty on Brazilian supplies.
Analysts noted that current U.S. purchases are largely political, aimed at maintaining a positive atmosphere ahead of a possible April meeting between Chinese and U.S. leaders. Even if Beijing directs state firms to buy more U.S. soybeans to meet trade commitments, volumes are likely to remain limited unless tariffs are reduced.
Crush margins for Brazilian soybeans shipped between March and June remain attractive, supporting expectations of higher exports to China than last year. Brazilian soybeans are currently cheaper than U.S. Gulf and Pacific Northwest supplies, with China having paid significantly more for U.S. cargoes at recent price levels.
With bumper soybean crops forecast in Brazil and Argentina, traders expect South American supplies to dominate until new U.S. soybeans arrive in September. Brazil’s 2025/26 production is projected at a record 182.2 million tonnes, with exports to China estimated to rise to about 85 million tonnes. Strong soymeal demand, supported by China’s large pig herd, is expected to underpin imports in the first half of 2026.
