Vietnam: Feed Ingredients Trade Outlook

According to a recent report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture, corn consumption in Vietnam is expected to increase in marketing year 2024-25 due to an uptick in feed demand. This growth is expected to follow lackluster demand from Europe and the United States for Vietnamese aquaculture products in 2023. The report from the Global Agricultural Information Network (GAIN) released on April 11 forecasts total corn consumption to reach 14.1 million tonnes in Vietnam. This includes 12.7 million tonnes for feed and residual use, which is in line with total feed demand forecasts.

The FAS has lowered its 2023-24 forecast for corn consumption to 13 million tonnes. This includes 11.5 million tonnes for feed and residual due to higher imports of feed wheat. Feed demand for 2024 is expected to be 26.5 million tonnes, up from 25.9 million tonnes year-on-year due to projected higher aquafeed demand after a dip in demand in 2023. Continued growth in animal feed and aquafeed demand is expected to push total feed demand to 27 million tonnes in 2025.

The FAS noted that approximately 75% of feed ingredients in Vietnam are imported. Furthermore, Vietnam is a price-sensitive market for feed ingredients such as corn and feed wheat. According to the report, corn production in 2024-25 is projected to be 3.65 million tonnes, which is down from 3.76 million tonnes the previous marketing year.

Domestic corn production remains uncompetitive with imports, which is why corn imports are expected to grow. Imports are forecasted to be 11 million tonnes for 2024-25, up from 10 million in 2023-24. Brazil is now the largest corn supplier to Vietnam, accounting for 44% of total market share in calendar year 2023, followed by Argentina with 33% and India with 12%.

The FAS projects that Vietnam will import all of its wheat to meet its total consumption needs. Wheat imports are forecasted to be 4.5 million tonnes in 2024-25, down from 5.1 million tonnes the previous marketing year. Wheat demand is expected to be 4.25 million tonnes in 2024-25. The FAS has revised its 2023-24 outlook to 4.55 million tonnes due to higher wheat consumption for both feed and milling.

Milled rice production is expected to be higher than anticipated in 2024-25, with 27 million tonnes produced, the same as the previous year, due to favorable weather. However, the FAS anticipates flat production in the coming years due to government plans to not expand production area. Rice consumption is projected to be 21.85 million tonnes in 2024-25, up slightly from 21.8 million tonnes year-on-year. This is based on increased demand for feed use, population growth, and tourism growth.

Source: Sosland publishing