Indian prices may remain high export parity low due to government intervention
The average yield in US is estimated at 10.868 MT/hac against Indian average of 2.67 MT/hac for the year 2013/14. US corn production is now expected to be 365.93MMT.
World corn production is expected to 990.3 MMT, up slightly from last year, while world corn ending stocks are expected to be 191.5 MMT, which is up 11% from last year.
Indian corn production is estimated at 21 MMT for the year 2014/15, of which 16.05 MMT is expected during Kharif production. The grain so far that has arrived in the market is lower grade than under NCDEX standard (number of grains per 100 kgs is over 450, whereas NCDEX standard is 400 grian/100 gm). The grains are lighter as the plants did not receive sufficient water and also the crop was planted late. (Photo on the right taken on Nov 27, 2014 at the market yard in Mahboob Nagar District, Telangana Different corn qualities from different farmers). The demand of corn in India is expected to be increase due to increased demand of meat, milk and eggs. Current demand of corn in India for poultry alone is expected at 9.5 MMT, followed by dairy at 3.2 MMT. Starch industry is expected to consume 2.3 MMT. The ethanol sector (for potable alcohol) has been growing as is expected to consume 0.7 MMT of corn. With exports expected to down for 2014/15 due to higher domestic prices (higher than international prices), there will be enough corn, unless international price move up or Indian corn prices drop drastically.
Amit Sachdev, US Grains Council